Maturity Wall

A maturity wall is a bulge of commercial mortgage maturities concentrated in a short window — the aggregate consequence of thousands of balloon structures written in the same vintage years. Because CRE loans typically run five to ten years, a boom in originations (like the low-rate years of 2020–2022) mechanically becomes a wave of required refinancings five to ten years later, regardless of market conditions when the wave lands.

The wall matters to individual borrowers because refinancing is competitive and capacity-constrained. When an outsized cohort of loans needs new debt at once, lenders can be selective: the cleanest deals refinance smoothly, while marginal DSCRs, soft appraisals, or out-of-favor property types face cash-in refis, extensions, or forced sales. Being early — engaging lenders 9–12 months before maturity, before the crowd — is one of the few advantages a borrower fully controls.

Our data approaches the wall from the supply side: which banks have capacity and appetite (Call Report growth and concentration), and which are actually closing loans right now (county-recorded deeds of trust).